The Three Year Myth

I got let go from my job - elimination of role, they're claiming - so I'm understandably a bit raw. So was my boss from what it looked like, though he still has a paycheck and benefits whereas I do not. Still, rawness is an excellent time to reflect on what went right and what I could've done better, before the brain starts coping with the trauma of the event in question.

What stuck out at me from this role was a confirmation of something I'd been gradually getting more and more data for over the course of my career, something I'm going to call the "Three Year Myth". It's something I'm emphatically not going to tolerate going forward, as every single time I've taken that bait in my career, I've been burned by it. Whether the organization is large or small, complex or streamlined, a conglomerate or a small business, the myth basically works the same way: you want something - a promotion, a raise, a process change, a new way of doing things - and you are told that while it's not possible now, if you just wait two to three years then it'll naturally come to pass.

So you, not wanting to rock the boat and also wanting to find success, do as you're told. You may continue working on the thing, showing progress or highlighting gaps, but ultimately you keep it quiet. On the down-low, so to speak. You bide your time, you wait in the wings, you do exactly as you're told even as others move up, find success, earn promotions. A year goes by, and you check-in: "two to three years", you're reminded. Your performance review is solid, of course, your deliverables unimpeachable, but something begins to feel increasingly off. Your colleagues are in more meetings, but your task list only grows longer. Your progress on said project is appreciated by your boss and team, maybe even your boss' boss, but never really recognized. Even so, you know the world outside is hostile to job seekers and a steady paycheck beats the unemployment line, and so you continue to soldier onward.

The pink slip comes as a total surprise. It always comes as a surprise. You did everything you were told, even waited patiently like you were asked. You trusted the organization to reward you in turn - and now you've lost your job.

On your way out the door, you hear the rumors: someone else did your thing years after you showed yours off. They got the credit, the bonus, the promotion, the recognition. They're a Senior now, or a Lead, or a Director, or a VP.

You're unemployed.

The waiting was a myth all along. It was a trap, and you fell for it.

Organizations delay change on purpose all the time. Humans naturally crave some form of stability, and any sort of change - positive or negative - is generally frowned upon by those whose stability depends on the status quo persisting. This is not merely limited to business, but also quite openly seen in politics, in government, in institutions. We like stability.

To be fair to the opposing side, they often have valid reasons not to implement change. Maybe they already have business commitments that require the status quo persist. Perhaps there's a substantial donor funding an outcome beneficial to them, at the expense of you. Or they just might not like you because you slighted them, or your success threatens them and their power.

All technically valid reasons to stonewall you, but not to lie to you. That is a choice. That is willful harm.

When I tried implementing Financial Operations (FinOps) in a prior role, it was roundly rejected as being opposed to the general attitude at the time of, "don't worry about the money". My attempts at holding cost centers accountable was thoroughly unwelcome, even as I could point to millions of dollars in cost savings across the two estates I had purview over. Roughly two years later, suddenly FinOps was top-of-mind as they tried to maximize margins. As my network access was being terminated from a wave of layoffs, I could hear on a livestream that a colleague in an entirely different business unit had duplicated my earlier work and been celebrated for it. My change wasn't wrong, but the timing was inconvenient to power, and that's what was remembered more than my being early to the party.

Timing, as they say, is everything. Oftentimes I am ahead of the proverbial curve because I ingest so many data sources, because my OCD has me (over)analyzing everything that comes my way. A recent-ish example was when I was asked to architect the compute side of a physical product based on customer requirements. I read those things line by line (no AI summaries here!), and put forth the best solution I could with the data available to me: a single, rugged PC with a modest amount of memory, a relatively expansive SSD, and a zippy CPU capable of handling every product feature four-times over. My justification for a single-PC when the prior design called for two was a combination of modern hardware and the looming memory crisis (this was September/October, before things got really, really bad). This is something that works, but will also be available to buy at reasonable prices.

I was given a warning because said proposal was (unknowingly) opposed to a Senior Director's vision, one they'd already presented to the customer prior to seeking my input and neglected to mention when I reached out. My timing was perfect for the market, but poor for the systems of power within the organization.

When someone in a position of power asks you to wait, they're doing two things:

Preserving their power in the immediate at the expense of your growth and success
Ensuring your downfall by giving themselves time to maneuver around you

As much as I loathe game theory in terms of human interactions (without getting into the gory details, let's just say I'm literally not built for competition so much as cooperation), I'm finding that it's increasingly relevant to my desire for growth. Sheer technical acumen won't get me much further, really, and I need to expand my repertoire into leadership skills again if I wish to climb the proverbial ladder and ensure my job security, flimsy as it may be in the current economy. This means getting better at the game theory side of human interactions, analyzing personal as well as technical and business stakes, and finding a path forward. I thought I had such a path by focusing on departmental agency and overall business growth instead of technical superiority, but that blew up in my face quite spectacularly when confronted by stakeholders whose position was so threatened by any change that every change had to be blocked at all costs.

Thus the conclusion I come to is that when I am asked to wait, I must consider that a threat towards my career and act accordingly. If the feedback is positive and the output well received but you're still asked to wait, especially if you're asked to wait months or years without additional context as to why, then that's pretty telling that you're no longer viewed as an asset so much as a threat.

Looking back, being told to wait for a promotion, despite having done everything explicitly tasked to me to earn one, was a signal flare that I needed to begin looking elsewhere now. Being told to wait on a process change without context as to why was a giant smoke signal that the fire would engulf me sooner than later if I opted to stay. Hell, I should've learned this lesson when I spent three years waiting for a "role to open up" for a promotion from Junior SysAdmin that never came, or when I spent a year doing the work of a manager without ever getting managerial pay or benefits, waiting for a District Manager to finally promote me to the job I was already doing. I am naturally helpful and cooperative, and this is consistently exploited by good and bad actors alike.

What matters is that I've learned it now, and I (hopefully) won't fall victim to it again.

Promotions, bonuses, and raises aren't cycle-dependent, they're stakeholder-dependent. Mountains can and will be moved for persons they deem worthy of such rewards, timing be damned.
Waiting a year for something you've already earned, or for a change you've already finished to be implemented, robs you of recognition today and growth tomorrow.
Employers are notoriously fickle at present, and have no concept of loyalty; neither should you.

So take it from me, a dinosaur back on the job market: do not wait until tomorrow for what you've rightfully earned today.